Jono Maryono
Hamas has declared it will not surrender its weapons at this juncture, directly confronting ongoing demands for disarmament and asserting that the ultimate disposition of its military arsenal will be determined through comprehensive deliberations involving all Palestinian factions. This firm stance comes as the group prepares to engage in renewed ceasefire talks in Cairo, emphasizing a complex web of preconditions and trust deficits that continue to impede progress toward a lasting resolution in Gaza.
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Husam Badran, a prominent member of the Hamas political bureau, outlined the movement’s perspective on navigating the stalled negotiations and introduced the concept of a long-term "hudna," or truce, as a potential pathway forward. Badran articulated a vision where, upon the assumption of governance by the proposed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), visible weaponry in Gaza’s streets would be limited solely to the official arms of the Palestinian police. "There will be no armed manifestations like the ones we were accustomed to in the Gaza Strip," Badran stated, aiming to assuage concerns about public security and the presence of armed groups.
However, Badran was quick to clarify that this proposition does not equate to a formal surrender of arms. "We are not talking about handing them over; we are talking about, at least, weapons not being visible except for the official weapons of the Palestinian police," he explained. "The details of this matter will be discussed within a national framework." This distinction underscores Hamas’s insistence on a phased and internally agreed-upon approach to security arrangements, rather than an immediate capitulation of its military capabilities.
The Hamas position emerges as an informed source revealed the group’s readiness to dispatch its delegation to Cairo for critical talks scheduled to commence this weekend. Hamas had initially deferred its participation, demanding an immediate cessation of Israeli assassinations, including the recent killings of military commanders Izz al-Din al-Haddad and Mohammed Odeh, as a prerequisite for creating a more conducive environment for negotiations. The group’s emphasis on ending targeted killings highlights a deep-seated concern for the safety of its leadership and a perceived need for de-escalation before substantive discussions can yield productive outcomes.
The disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza remain the most significant obstacles in the United States-brokered ceasefire plan, initially proposed in October 2025. The plan, intended to bring an end to hostilities and facilitate reconstruction, has faltered due to fundamental disagreements over the sequencing and implementation of key provisions.
Factional Consensus and the Cairo Summit
The impending Cairo meetings are set to convene representatives from eight key Palestinian factions, a move aimed at forging a unified national stance on the path forward. Badran confirmed the attendance of delegations from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC), the Palestinian National Initiative, the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC), and the Democratic Reform Current, a faction affiliated with Fatah. This broad representation underscores the desire for a collective Palestinian approach to the complex negotiations.
These discussions aim to revitalize the ceasefire initiative, originally championed by then-U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Badran voiced strong criticism regarding Israel’s adherence to the agreement, stating that the Israeli side has failed to implement even 30 percent of its Phase One obligations. This alleged non-compliance, he argued, renders any progression to subsequent phases untenable. "We are talking about humanitarian aid, the Rafah crossing mechanism, the infrastructure, and the assassinations," Badran elaborated. "The idea was a comprehensive ceasefire, but around 1,000 people have been killed. Saying Israel implemented even 30 percent is an overstatement."
Data compiled by Al Jazeera indicates that the daily influx of humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza has remained critically low, averaging between 150 and 250, significantly below the agreed-upon target of 600. Furthermore, essential infrastructure for electricity, healthcare, and fuel remains in a state of severe devastation, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and undermining any semblance of normalcy.
The Disarmament Deadlock: A Stalemate of Trust
While Palestinian factions are pressing for the fulfillment of these fundamental Phase One requirements, Israeli officials, alongside Nickolay Mladenov, the High Representative for Gaza on Trump’s "Board of Peace," are conditioning any transition to Phase Two on the disarmament of armed groups. This positions disarmament as a non-negotiable prerequisite for Israel, creating a direct confrontation with Hamas’s stated position.
To address this impasse, Mladenov recently presented a 15-point "roadmap" developed by the ceasefire guarantors. During a briefing to the United Nations Security Council in May 2026, Mladenov defended the plan, emphasizing its foundation in strict reciprocity and verification. Crucially, he clarified that the roadmap explicitly stipulates that "no Palestinian armed group will be required to transfer its weapons to Israel." Instead, the decommissioning of arms is envisioned as a gradual, sequenced, and Palestinian-led process, with all weapons to be transferred to the NCAG.
Mladenov further detailed that this disarmament process is intrinsically linked to a phased Israeli military withdrawal. The plan commits Israel to withdrawing its forces to Gaza’s perimeter according to an agreed timetable, contingent upon verified progress in decommissioning weapons and the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to serve as a buffer. This linkage seeks to establish a reciprocal security arrangement, where Israeli concessions are directly tied to Palestinian disarmament efforts.
Mladenov issued a stark warning to the UN Security Council regarding the severe repercussions of rejecting the roadmap. With an estimated 85 percent of Gaza’s buildings damaged or destroyed, he stressed that "reconstruction financing will not follow where weapons have not been laid down." Without a comprehensive agreement, he cautioned, Gaza risks remaining divided, with Hamas retaining administrative control over less than half of the territory, a scenario that would perpetuate instability and hinder long-term recovery.
"Negotiation Time" and Israeli Expansion: Palestinian Concerns
However, many Palestinians perceive this 15-point framework not as a genuine pathway to peace, but as a strategic maneuver designed to extract concessions while Israel consolidates its occupation. Wissam Afifa, a Palestinian political analyst, told Al Jazeera that Israel is leveraging "negotiation time" to wear down the population through sustained escalation.
"They shifted from Trump’s 20 points to a new square, the 15-point square, which revolves entirely around one single clause: disarmament," Afifa explained. He further noted that the Palestinian resistance finds itself cornered, pressured to make significant concessions without adequate guarantees, while the Israeli government purportedly utilizes the talks to advance its territorial ambitions.
Afifa’s analysis suggests that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is strategically employing the negotiations for domestic political advantage, aiming to expand Israel’s control over Gaza from an estimated 60 percent to potentially 70 percent or more. This alleged expansion is occurring amidst the paralysis and failure of oversight mechanisms, such as the Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), which have been unable to effectively monitor the situation.
"We are facing a scenario where the occupation has reshaped the ceasefire on its own terms," Afifa concluded, adding that Mladenov’s approach, by demanding disarmament without a clear political horizon for "the day after," effectively aligns with the Israeli and American agenda.
The National Committee Hurdle: A Test of Governance Transfer
This ongoing territorial expansion significantly complicates the envisioned transition of power. Amidst accusations that Hamas is reluctant to relinquish its hold on governance, the group’s spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, has repeatedly affirmed Hamas’s readiness to cede all governance and security responsibilities to the Cairo-based National Committee. Badran corroborated this, stating that Hamas has prepared all necessary administrative and security files for a smooth transfer.
However, the NCAG itself faces substantial operational challenges and has become, in Afifa’s words, a "hostage" to Israeli pressure and its own stringent preconditions. A member of the committee, speaking to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity, categorically denied reports of an imminent entry into Gaza. The committee has articulated strict conditions for assuming power, firmly refusing to operate behind the Israeli-controlled "Yellow Line," a de facto buffer zone, or to collaborate with Israeli-backed armed militias currently active in the Strip.
Furthermore, the committee source emphasized that entry into Gaza will only occur after the deployment of an International Stabilization Force in the buffer zones separating Israeli forces from Palestinian areas. This condition highlights the committee’s demand for a secure and internationally recognized operational environment, free from Israeli military interference and the influence of potentially antagonistic local armed actors.
As the political deadlock persists, the humanitarian cost continues to escalate. Mladenov acknowledged in his UN briefing that ceasefire violations persist, resulting in civilian casualties and obstructing vital humanitarian access. Since the current ceasefire officially took effect, ongoing Israeli military actions have reportedly claimed the lives of 933 Palestinians and injured 2,868. This brings the total death toll since October 2023 to an alarming 72,942, with an estimated 172,967 individuals injured, underscoring the devastating and ongoing impact of the conflict on the civilian population of Gaza. The path toward a sustainable ceasefire and a future for Gaza remains fraught with challenges, hinging on the ability of all parties to overcome deep-seated mistrust and address the fundamental issues of security, governance, and humanitarian aid.
