Israel and the United States at War with Iran Since February 28th: A Global Conflict Escalates

The world is grappling with the far-reaching consequences of a war that erupted between Israel and Iran on February 28th, a conflict that has rapidly drawn in the United States and plunged the Middle East into a state of unprecedented volatility. The ramifications of this escalating confrontation are not confined to the immediate belligerents but have demonstrably become global, impacting international trade, energy markets, and geopolitical stability. Casualties have been reported on all sides, a stark testament to the severity of the hostilities. Yet, this current state of intense antagonism stands in sharp contrast to a historical period when the relationship between Iran and Israel was characterized by a degree of pragmatic cooperation, a stark divergence that Ruby Zaman of Al Jazeera illuminates.

The Genesis of a Modern Conflict

The outbreak of hostilities on February 28th marked a dramatic and violent pivot in a regional dynamic that had been simmering for decades. While overt declarations of war were absent until this recent escalation, the underlying tensions between Iran and Israel, amplified by the involvement of the United States, have been a persistent feature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Background Context:

The current conflict can be traced to a complex web of historical grievances, ideological differences, and strategic imperatives.

• The Iranian Revolution of 1979: This pivotal event fundamentally reshaped Iran’s foreign policy, leading to the establishment of an Islamic Republic that viewed Israel as an illegitimate state and a key adversary, often termed the "Zionist entity." This ideological opposition has been a cornerstone of Iranian foreign policy ever since.
• Israel’s Security Concerns: For Israel, Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile development, and its support for regional proxy groups (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza) have been viewed as existential threats. These concerns have driven Israel’s proactive stance in countering Iranian influence in the region.
• The United States’ Role: The US has historically been a staunch ally of Israel, providing significant military and diplomatic support. Its involvement in the region has also been driven by its own strategic interests, including ensuring the free flow of oil, combating terrorism, and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The US has also been engaged in a long-standing adversarial relationship with Iran, particularly following the 1979 revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis.

The period leading up to February 28th was marked by a series of escalating incidents. These included alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, Iranian-backed attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, and increasingly strident rhetoric from leaders on all sides. The precise trigger for the formal declaration or escalation into overt warfare remains a subject of intense analysis, but it is widely understood to have been the culmination of these long-standing tensions.

A Chronology of Escalation

Understanding the current conflict necessitates a look at the historical trajectory of relations between these nations, highlighting the stark contrast to the present day.

Pre-Revolutionary Era: A Shared, Unlikely Alliance (Mid-20th Century to 1979)

• Post-World War II: Following World War II and the establishment of Israel in 1948, both nations found themselves in a peculiar geopolitical alignment. While not formal allies, they shared a common concern regarding the rise of Arab nationalism, which threatened both their nascent states.
• Intelligence Cooperation: During the reign of the Shah of Iran, intelligence agencies of Iran and Israel, SAVAK and Mossad respectively, reportedly engaged in a degree of cooperation. This was primarily driven by mutual security interests against common adversaries in the Arab world.
• Economic Ties: Limited but present, economic relations existed, particularly in the realm of oil. Iran was a significant oil supplier to Israel during this period.
• Shared Opposition to Nasserism: Both countries viewed Gamal Abdel Nasser’s pan-Arab nationalist movement in Egypt with suspicion and actively sought to counter its influence.

Post-Revolutionary Era: A Descent into Adversarial Relations (1979 – Present)

• 1979 Iranian Revolution: The overthrow of the Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic irrevocably altered the relationship. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared Israel an illegitimate state, and support for Palestinian causes became a central tenet of Iranian foreign policy.
• Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988): During this devastating conflict, Israel reportedly provided some covert support, including intelligence and arms, to Iran. This was a pragmatic move driven by Israel’s desire to see its principal regional rival, Iraq, weakened. This period, while fraught with geopolitical complexities, is a key example of the erstwhile pragmatic approach.
• Hezbollah’s Rise: Iran’s support for the creation and armament of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the early 1980s marked a significant escalation in proxy warfare, directly challenging Israel’s security.
• The Nuclear Program: Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear program, which Israel and the US contend is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, has been a major point of contention and a driver of international sanctions and covert actions.
• Syrian Civil War: Iran’s deep involvement in supporting the Assad regime in Syria, alongside its deployment of forces and proxy militias, created a direct Iranian military presence on Israel’s northern border, leading to frequent clashes and Israeli airstrikes.
• US Sanctions and Diplomacy: The US has consistently imposed sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, ballistic missile activities, and alleged support for terrorism. Diplomatic efforts, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions but ultimately proved fragile.
• The February 28th Escalation: The precise events leading to the declaration of war or its significant escalation on February 28th are still being pieced together. However, it is understood to be the result of a direct, significant military confrontation that bypassed previous patterns of proxy conflict and covert actions, forcing a more overt declaration of hostilities. This could have involved a major direct military strike or a series of retaliatory attacks that crossed a pre-defined red line for one or more of the involved parties.

Supporting Data and Pre-Conflict Indicators

While the direct casualty figures for the current conflict are still being compiled and remain highly sensitive, pre-existing data provides a stark picture of the region’s fragility and the potential for escalation.

• Military Expenditures:
  • Israel: Consistently ranks among the top global military spenders. In 2023, its defense budget was estimated to be over $25 billion, with significant investment in advanced air defense systems, cyber warfare, and offensive capabilities.
  • Iran: While exact figures are difficult to ascertain due to transparency issues, Iran’s reported defense budget is substantial, focusing on ballistic missile development, drone technology, and supporting its network of regional proxies. Estimates vary, but it is understood to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually.
  • United States: The US possesses the world’s largest military budget, exceeding $800 billion annually, providing a significant capacity to project power globally and support its allies in the Middle East.
• Ballistic Missile Capabilities:
  • Iran: Possesses one of the largest and most diverse ballistic missile programs in the Middle East, capable of striking targets across the region. This program has been a major source of concern for Israel and the US.
  • Israel: Possesses advanced missile and rocket technology, including its own ballistic missile capabilities and sophisticated missile defense systems like the Iron Dome.
• Proxy Networks: Iran’s extensive network of proxy groups (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria) has been a key element of its regional strategy, allowing it to project power and influence without direct confrontation, until now. These groups have been responsible for numerous attacks on Israel and its interests, as well as on US assets and allies.
• Energy Market Vulnerability: The Persian Gulf region is crucial for global energy supplies. Any significant disruption to oil and gas production or shipping routes due to conflict in the region can lead to sharp increases in global energy prices, impacting economies worldwide. Pre-conflict, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have historically led to spikes in oil prices.

Official Responses and International Reactions

The formal declarations of war or significant escalations on February 28th have elicited a range of responses from international actors.

• United States: The US has unequivocally reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security and has publicly condemned Iran’s actions. Statements from the White House and the Pentagon have indicated readiness to provide military support to Israel and to deter further Iranian aggression. President Biden’s administration has been engaged in intense diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation while simultaneously bolstering regional military presence.
• Israel: Israeli leadership has framed the conflict as a necessary response to Iranian aggression and a defense of its national security. Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to neutralize the Iranian threat and has called for international support. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been placed on high alert and have initiated offensive operations.
• Iran: Iranian officials have denounced the actions of Israel and the US, framing the conflict as a defensive war against "occupying aggressors." They have vowed retaliation and have accused the US of being complicit in Israeli actions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been mobilized and is reportedly leading significant operational efforts.
• United Nations: The UN Security Council has convened emergency sessions to address the escalating crisis. Secretary-General António Guterres has issued strong calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and has warned of the catastrophic humanitarian consequences. However, deep divisions among permanent members have often hampered decisive UN action.
• Regional Powers: Neighboring Arab states, many of whom have normalized relations with Israel in recent years, have expressed grave concern over the escalating conflict. While some have condemned the violence, their responses have been largely measured, reflecting their own complex relationships with both Iran and the Western powers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have called for de-escalation and have emphasized the need for regional stability.
• European Union: EU member states have largely echoed the UN’s calls for de-escalation and have expressed deep concern over the humanitarian impact. Diplomatic channels are reportedly being utilized to explore avenues for mediation.

Broader Impact and Implications

The current war between Israel, the US, and Iran carries profound implications that extend far beyond the immediate combat zone.

• Global Economic Disruption: The conflict has already sent shockwaves through global financial markets. Volatility in oil prices is a primary concern, threatening to exacerbate inflation and slow down economic growth worldwide. Disruption to shipping lanes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, could cripple international trade.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The human cost of this war is likely to be immense. Civilian populations in affected areas are at extreme risk from direct conflict, displacement, and shortages of essential resources. The potential for a large-scale refugee crisis is a significant concern for international aid organizations.
• Geopolitical Realignment: The conflict could accelerate a realignment of geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and beyond. Countries may be forced to choose sides, leading to increased polarization and potential for proxy conflicts in other regions. The Abraham Accords, which saw several Arab nations normalize relations with Israel, may face severe strain.
• Nuclear Proliferation Risk: A protracted conflict, particularly if it involves significant attacks on nuclear facilities or a perceived existential threat, could increase the temptation for states to pursue nuclear weapons for deterrence, thereby escalating proliferation risks globally.
• Rise of Extremism: Regional instability and prolonged conflict often create fertile ground for extremist groups to thrive, potentially leading to a resurgence of terrorism and further destabilization.
• Shifting International Order: The effectiveness of international institutions in managing and resolving such a major conflict will be severely tested. The war’s outcome could have lasting implications for the global governance and the balance of power.

The once-unthinkable scenario of a direct, large-scale war between Israel and Iran, now involving the United States, represents a critical juncture in 21st-century geopolitics. The historical context of a more cooperative past serves as a stark reminder of the complex and often fluid nature of international relations, but it offers little solace in the face of the current devastating reality. The path forward is fraught with peril, demanding unprecedented levels of diplomatic engagement, de-escalation, and a concerted effort from the international community to prevent a wider conflagration and mitigate its catastrophic global consequences.