Jono Maryono
The suburban ward of Ashton-in-Makerfield, nestled between the post-industrial heritage of Wigan and the burgeoning urban landscape of Manchester, has been the epicentre of intense political activity for months. The announcement of a critical by-election in May ignited a fervor that has seen the town besieged by a relentless tide of political activists, journalists, and international observers. For residents like Sue Hailwood, a charity shop worker, the prolonged attention has been an exhausting ordeal. "It’s been absolutely horrendous," she remarked, echoing the sentiment of many who found their quiet community thrust into the national spotlight. Peter Thompson, owner of a vinyl record shop, described the atmosphere as "stupidly hectic," noting the influx of international media, including delegations from the United States and France, alongside television crews from Sweden and Denmark. "It’s the most important by-election in the history of this country," he declared, underscoring the perceived stakes.
The by-election, held on Thursday, culminated in a decisive victory for Andy Burnham, the former Labour Mayor of Manchester. His win, by a substantial margin, is widely viewed as a significant prelude to a potential Labour leadership contest, setting the stage for a direct challenge to the incumbent Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. Burnham, aged 56, has explicitly stated his intention to contest the leadership, a move that Prime Minister Starmer, 62, has indicated he is prepared to face, asserting he will not "walk away" from any race. The coming days and weeks are expected to be pivotal in determining the trajectory of the Labour Party and, by extension, the future political leadership of the United Kingdom.
The Path to Leadership: Navigating Labour’s Internal Dynamics
Under the Labour Party’s established rules, any Member of Parliament seeking to challenge the leader must secure the nominations of at least 20 percent of Labour MPs. For Andy Burnham, this translates to a requirement of 81 parliamentary nominations. Additionally, he would need to garner support from local party branches and key affiliated organisations, such as trade unions. The process could become more protracted should Prime Minister Starmer choose to resist a challenge or if other contenders emerge to vie for the leadership.
Burnham, affectionately nicknamed the "king of the north" by his supporters, has a history of leadership aspirations within the Labour Party, having previously contested the leadership in 2010 and 2015. In a speech delivered early on Friday, following his by-election triumph, Burnham articulated a vision for change, stating, "people here have voted for change. They have voted for more power for the north and everywhere forgotten by Westminster." This message resonated deeply with local voters, many of whom expressed a desire for a more dynamic and regionally focused leadership.
The Starmer Conundrum: A Mandate Under Scrutiny
Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party, while securing a broad victory in the 2024 general election, has been characterised by a series of perceived missteps and policy reversals. The party gained a significant number of MPs, but many did so with narrow majorities, leaving Starmer’s mandate vulnerable. He has faced persistent criticism and has been dogged by pressure from the right-wing Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage. Public opinion polls have consistently shown Starmer as one of the least popular leaders in the UK since such surveys began.
The Ashton-in-Makerfield by-election provided a stark indicator of this sentiment. Burnham secured 24,927 votes, a commanding lead of over 9,000 votes against his closest rival, Reform candidate Robert Kenyon. For a significant segment of Labour voters, the by-election was not merely a local contest but a referendum on the party’s direction and its leadership.
Cameron Graham, a 31-year-old factory worker and staunch trade union member, articulated this sentiment clearly. "I’d definitely prefer Burnham to Starmer," he stated, emphasizing that his vote for Labour in the 2024 general election was a vote for the party’s principles, not necessarily its current leader. This sentiment was echoed by Howard Bond, a retired sales manager, who, along with his family, has been a lifelong Labour supporter. "I think Burnham would do a better job," Bond commented outside a polling station, having already given several media interviews. He dismissed Reform’s campaign tactics, which suggested Burnham was out of touch with the local community, by highlighting Burnham’s established ties to the area, including his children attending local schools and his participation in local sports clubs. "He knows what he’s doing. He’s very articulate and I think he genuinely means well for the community," Bond added, expressing a clear preference for Burnham’s leadership style.
The Rise of Reform and the Immigration Debate
The by-election also served as a barometer for the growing influence of the Reform Party, which has strategically positioned immigration as a central tenet of its platform. This issue has become a recurring theme in British politics, particularly on the right. Recent weeks have seen heightened tensions surrounding immigration, with incidents in Belfast and Southampton drawing national attention.
In Ashton-in-Makerfield, the Reform Party’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, secured a significant second place, demonstrating the party’s ability to tap into voter concerns. John Van Dusen, a 74-year-old resident displaying a Reform flag from his lawn, voiced his perspective: "Mass immigration is not good for this country. Illegal immigrants coming over on boats are not being stopped, and the French are helping them come across." His comments, made in a ward where statistics indicate 97 percent of residents were born locally, highlight the disconnect between national narratives and local realities. Despite Reform’s strong showing in Makerfield, national polls suggest the party could achieve significant electoral success if a general election were held imminently, a prospect that has alarmed many within the established political spectrum.
The Reform Party, and its associated group Restore, which has reportedly received backing from figures like Elon Musk, bused in activists from across the country and even from overseas to campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield. This organised effort aimed to amplify their message on immigration and other culture-war issues.
A Fractured Electorate: The Five-Party Landscape
Professor Sir John Curtice, a respected pollster, recently described the UK’s political landscape as having transformed into a "five-party country," with each major party commanding between 17 and 27 percent of the vote share. This fragmentation signifies that all parties are essentially minority players, operating in a complex electoral environment. The five key parties identified are the right-wing Conservatives, the leftist Greens, the centrist Liberal Democrats, the centre-left Labour Party, and the hard-right Reform Party.
Professor Curtice attributed this shift to two primary drivers. Firstly, demographic factors such as race, social class, and age have become increasingly detached from traditional voting patterns since the Brexit referendum. Secondly, culture-war issues have gained prominence, rivaling traditional political and economic concerns. This has led to a situation where socially conservative voters are often drawn to parties like Reform, irrespective of their economic policies.
The Green Party, under its new leader Zack Polanski, has also experienced a surge in support, particularly on the left. Their victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election against a Reform candidate in February underscored this trend and delivered a notable setback to Farage’s party.
Broader Implications and the Road Ahead
The Ashton-in-Makerfield by-election has significant implications beyond the immediate constituency. Andy Burnham’s decisive victory has solidified his position as a formidable contender for the Labour leadership. His ability to connect with voters, his regional focus, and his perceived clear vision for the country have been highlighted by political analysts. Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London commented on Starmer’s challenges, noting his "poor communication" and "missteps" in his initial months in office, suggesting a lack of inspiring vision. In contrast, Bale described Burnham as someone who "can connect with the public and appears to have a clear sense of where the country needs to go."
The by-election results also provide a stark warning to the Conservative Party and the Labour leadership about the electoral threat posed by Reform. While the Conservatives remain a significant force, their traditional voter base appears to be eroding, with Reform capturing a segment of disaffected voters. The Labour Party, while benefiting from Burnham’s popularity in this instance, faces the ongoing challenge of unifying its factions and presenting a coherent and inspiring vision that can appeal to a broad spectrum of the electorate.
As the political dust settles in Ashton-in-Makerfield, the national implications are undeniable. The by-election has not only amplified the calls for a change in Labour’s leadership but has also underscored the volatile and fragmented nature of contemporary British politics. The campaign’s intensity, which left residents like Sue Hailwood exhausted, was a reflection of the high stakes involved. As one local resident remarked with a wry smile, observing the departure of the media circus, "Well, at least we’re going to get our town back after this." However, the political tremors emanating from Ashton-in-Makerfield are likely to resonate for some time to come, shaping the future direction of the Labour Party and the broader UK political landscape.
