Jono Maryono
Tehran, Iran – Iranians are navigating a fourth week of repercussions from what they describe as a US-Israeli war on their nation, compounded by a severely strained economy and the longest nationwide internet shutdown in the country’s history. The current climate of uncertainty is further amplified by the ongoing Persian New Year, Nowruz, holidays, a period traditionally marked by celebration and renewed beginnings, which this year finds most of the country observing closures under a pall of economic distress and digital isolation.
The nation has endured a series of disruptive events this year, including a significant 12-day conflict involving Israel and the United States in June, and a period of bloody nationwide protests in January. These crises have been exacerbated by recurring internet shutdowns, some linked to environmental issues such as severe air pollution stemming from an energy crisis. These persistent disruptions have created a climate of instability, impacting every facet of Iranian life, from personal livelihoods to national commerce.
For many small business owners, the sustained reduction in market activity over the past year, and particularly in the crucial pre-Nowruz period, has translated into a drastic decline in income. "There was some action in those last few days, but our sales were probably about one-third of usual levels around this time, which is supposed to be the time of the year when we get the most business," stated a vendor specializing in textiles and related commodities in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, who requested anonymity due to security concerns. He added, "Nobody is sure what comes next when we open back up after the holidays. Things have only gotten worse over the past few years." His sentiment reflects a widespread anxiety about the future, with many businesses facing an existential threat from the confluence of economic pressures and governmental policies.
The erosion of purchasing power for average Iranians has been a gradual but relentless process over several years. This decline is attributed to a complex interplay of internal factors, including pervasive corruption and mismanagement within the government, and external pressures, notably the "maximum pressure" campaign of comprehensive sanctions initiated by the United States in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term. These sanctions have significantly hampered Iran’s ability to conduct international trade and access global financial markets, leading to a contraction of the economy and a devaluation of its currency.
Official figures released prior to the recent conflict indicated an annual inflation rate of approximately 70 percent, with food inflation soaring to over 100 percent. These statistics paint a grim picture for lower-income households, who are disproportionately affected by rising costs. The Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced significant downturns, marked by substantial capital flight, prompting experts to voice concerns about the potential for hyperinflation and the dollarization of the economy – a process where a foreign currency becomes the primary medium of exchange.
In an attempt to mitigate the economic fallout, the government has announced measures including spending cuts and a proposed 60 percent increase in the minimum wage, alongside a limited cash subsidy program. However, the effectiveness of these measures is being challenged by the relentless rise in the cost of living, a trend that has intensified since the 12-day war in June. Tax increases have also been implemented this year, adding another layer of financial burden to individuals and businesses.
A small grocery shopkeeper in western Tehran, who requested anonymity, noted that while his store has maintained access to most goods since the conflict began on February 28, the escalating prices have become a significant deterrent for customers. "You can see a lot of people double-checking the prices or making calculations when coming in to buy things. It’s not an uncommon sight these days," he observed. This careful scrutiny of prices by consumers underscores the precarious financial situation faced by many Iranian families.
Following the outbreak of hostilities, some families opted to leave Tehran and other major urban centers, prioritizing the safety of their loved ones. Many have since been compelled to deplete their modest savings, facing an uncertain future upon their potential return. The lack of immediate diplomatic breakthroughs, despite recent suggestions from former President Trump regarding the potential for diplomatic intervention, offers little short-term reassurance. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has continued to launch projectiles at regional neighbors, contributing to heightened global energy costs and further isolating Iran on the international stage.
The Deepening Internet Blackout: A Nation in Digital Isolation
The extended nationwide internet blackout, now entering its 25th day, has plunged over 90 million Iranians into digital darkness, exacerbating an already grim situation. This prolonged shutdown has not only stifled the flow of information, largely limiting access to state-controlled media outlets, but has also inflicted significant psychological and financial damage on the population.
The absence of global internet connectivity has severely hampered Iranians’ ability to communicate their experiences to the international community during the ongoing conflict. Furthermore, it has had a devastating impact on individuals and businesses reliant on online platforms. "This time, there is not even a word about when the internet might get reconnected. It is not only humiliating, but it is also forcing businesses to close down and inflation to grow," lamented a young woman who operated a small online business selling jewelry and accessories via Instagram and Telegram. She revealed that her income has been unsustainable for months, a situation that began with a previous 20-day near-total internet shutdown in January, a period marked by widespread anti-establishment protests and significant loss of life.
In the aftermath of the January protests, many online businesses were forced to either halt advertising or suspend operations entirely. This decision was often driven by a desire to focus resources on disseminating information about the protest killings, a move that inadvertently compounded their economic difficulties.
Assets Confiscated Amidst Crackdown on Dissent
The government’s response to dissent has intensified, with numerous private businesses being shuttered or having their online presences suspended by authorities. This action has often been a consequence of businesses expressing solidarity with those killed during protests, even through simple social media posts. The judiciary has also taken the drastic step of confiscating the assets of several individuals, including a prominent businessman known for his cafe and food brands, for participating in protests.
In a recent development announced on Tuesday, the judiciary declared the confiscation of assets belonging to a man identified as Borzou Arjmand, an actor, and his associates. They were described as "active elements who are colluding and collaborating with the terrorists and the US-Israel child-killing regimes." Arjmand had reportedly been advocating for the overthrow of the government since leaving the country.
Adding to this trend, the judiciary announced on Tuesday its enhanced capacity to "identify and confiscate assets online" for individuals believed to be aligned with "hostile countries." This announcement follows numerous official warnings regarding asset seizure issued to Iranians, both domestically and abroad, for expressing dissenting views. Hamzeh Khalili, the first deputy of the judiciary, stated in a video message on Monday that "the court cases of terrorist agents of the enemy that have led to definitive sentences are being implemented," signaling a hardening stance against perceived opposition.
Executions and Intensified Repression
The past week has seen multiple executions carried out in Iran, based on national security charges stemming from the June war and the January nationwide protests. Authorities have also intensified their crackdown on efforts to transmit footage of the conflict or images of state-controlled checkpoints to international media outlets, particularly during the ongoing internet shutdown.
The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency released a video on Tuesday featuring the "confessions" of an unidentified young woman, her face obscured by a black mask. She was reportedly arrested for filming a missile impact site from her home window. Fars issued a stark warning: "Those who send videos to anti-Iranian media must await this moment." This incident highlights the severe risks faced by individuals attempting to document events within Iran and share them with the outside world.
Iranian authorities have explicitly warned that any street protests against the establishment will be met with lethal force, with participants being branded as "enemies." In parallel, pro-establishment paramilitary forces and civilian supporters have been mobilized to maintain public order and suppress any signs of unrest.
In a recent interview, General Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, advised antigovernment protesters in Iran to "stay inside for now," while also indicating that "there will be a clear signal at some point, as the president [Donald Trump] has indicated, for you to be able to come out." This statement suggests a potential future alignment of international support for internal dissent, though the immediate implications for those on the ground remain uncertain amidst the current climate of repression.
